Data Dashboard
A snapshot of the latest UK automotive retail,
production & wholesale data.
production & wholesale data.
Cars
0.5%
Oct 2025 (YoY)
| Forecast | Upside | Baseline | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | 2.23m | 2.08m | 1.89m |
| % Change | 9.7% | 2.2% | -7.0% |
Every quarter, we combine our proprietary market insights with the latest new car registration data to create three new car market forecast scenarios for the next 12 months.
These include an upside, baseline and downside scenario, each reflecting different macroeconomic, policy and industry conditions that could shape the outlook for the remainder of the year and the total new car registrations.
Upside scenario:
Cox Automotive’s upside new car market forecast benchmarks the total registrations to reach 2.23 million in 2026, which would represent a 9.7% increase year-on-year.
Baseline scenario:
Cox Automotive’s baseline new car market forecast benchmarks the total registrations to reach 2.08 million in 2026, which would represent a 2.2% increase year-on-year.
Downside scenario:
Cox Automotive’s downside new car market forecast benchmarks the total registrations to reach 1.89 million in 2026, which would represent a 7.0% decrease year-on-year.
Source: Cox Automotive (Insight Quarterly)
2.8%
Q3 2025 (YoY)
In Q3 2025, there were 2,021,265 used car sales recorded, which is 2.8% higher than in October 2024.
There have been 6,038,371 used car sales this year to date, which represents 2.4% growth year-on-year.
Source: SMMT
| Forecast | Upside | Baseline | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | 8.03m | 7.83m | 7.36m |
| % Change | 3.5% | 0.9% | -5.2% |
Every quarter, we combine our proprietary market insights with the latest used vehicle data to create our used car market forecast: three scenarios which forecast the industry’s performance for the next 12 months.
These include an upside, baseline and downside scenario, each reflecting different macroeconomic, policy and industry conditions that could shape the remainder of the year and the total used car sales.
Upside scenario:
Cox Automotive’s upside forecast benchmarks total used car sales to reach 8.03 million in 2026, which would represent a 3.5% increase year-on-year.
Baseline scenario:
Cox Automotive’s baseline forecast benchmarks total used car sales to reach 7.83 million in 2026, which would represent a 0.9% increase year-on-year.
Downside scenario:
Cox Automotive’s upside forecast benchmarks total used car sales to reach 7.36 million in 2026, which would represent a 5.2% decrease year-on-year.
Source: Cox Automotive (Insight Quarterly)
-27.1%
Sept 2025 (YoY)
In October, the UK’s vehicle manufacturing industry produced 51,090 vehicles, which is 27.1% lower than the same period in 2024.
This year to date, the industry has manufactured 543,099 which is an 8.4% reduction on the previous year.
Source: SMMT
£5
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The potential retail margin that can be achieved on vehicles bought via Dealer Auction’s open network.
The average retail margin on cars sold in October was £2,167, which is £5 higher than the previous month.
Source: Dealer Auction
Oct 2025 (YoY)
Demand is a measure of consumer response to Autotrader’s car adverts.
Retail demand increased by 10% year-on-year in October 2025.
Source: Auto Trader
0.8%
Oct 2025 (YoY)
The level of available stock in the market, according to Autotrader.
Retail supply increased by 0.8% year-on-year in October 2025.
Source: Auto Trader
Oct 2025 (YoY)
Retail market health tracks balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used car market is stronger or weaker than previously, according to Autotrader.
Retail market health declined by 4.8% year-on-year in October 2025.
Source: Auto Trader
Oct 2025 (YoY)
A measure of speed of sale for franchised dealers used cars advertised on Auto Trader.
The average days to sell in October were 28, which is lower than in previous months.
Source: Auto Trader
£274
Oct 2025 (MoM)
In October, the average sold price of used cars was £7,423, which is £274 lower than the previous month.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
0
Oct 2025 (MoM)
This index tracks the price performance of two to four-year-old cars in the used vehicle market, between 50,000 to 70,000 miles between grade 1 to 5, sold through Manheim Auctions Services.
In October 2025, wholesale car prices were indexed at 98.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
1k
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The average milage of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025 was 69,000.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
3
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The average age of used car sales at Manheim Auction Services.
The average age of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025 was 104.5 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
-0.5
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The percentage of used cars sold the first time they appear at auction.
86% of used cars sold first time at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025, a 0.5% decrease from September.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
-1.1%
The average change in the cap value for three-year-old and 60,000 mile cars. In October 2025, these decreased by 1.1%.
Source: cap HPI
0
Oct 2025 (MoM)
Manheim’s wholesale market health tracks the balance between supply and demand in the used vehicle market, indicating whether the wholesale car market is stronger or weaker than the year prior. It is measured on a scale of one to 100.
In October 2025, the wholesale car market health was scored at 84.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
-2.7
Oct 2025 (MoM)
This index tracks the supply of wholesale cars since the start of 2025.
Wholesale supply in October 2025 was indexed at 108.2, a 2.7 point decrease from September.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
-8.1
Oct 2025 (MoM)
This index tracks the demand for wholesale cars since the start of 2025.
Wholesale supply in October 2025 was indexed at 111.8, an 8.1 point decrease from September.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs)
-15.2%
Oct 2025 (YoY)
In October 2025, there were 22,896 new LCV registrations, which is 15.2% lower than in October 2024.
There have been 264,160 new LCV registrations in 2025 to date, which represents 10.2% decrease year-on-year.
Source: SMMT
-77.9%
Oct 2025 (YoY)
In October 2025, there were 3,229 LCVs manufactured in the UK, which is -77.90% lower than October 2024
There were 93,447 LCVs manufactured in the UK this year to date, which is 58.10% lower than in 2024.
Source: SMMT
£292
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The average sold price for used LCVs in October 2025 was £7,799.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
2.4k
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The average milage of used LCV's sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used LCV's sold at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025 was 77,500 miles.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
5.6
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The average age of used LCV's sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average age of used LCV's sold at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025 was 75.1 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
-1.4%
Oct 2025 (MoM)
Used LCVs sold in October 2025 achieved an average of 102% of cap, which is 1.4% lower than the previous month.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
0.5%
The average change in the cap value for three-year-old and 60,000 mile cars. In October 2025, these decreased by 0.5%.
Source: cap HPI
1%
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The percentage of used cars sold the first time they appear at auction.
87.4% of used cars sold first time at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025, a 1% increase from September.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
23.6%
Oct 2025 (YoY)
There were 36,830 new electric vehicles registered in October 2025, which is 23.6% higher than October 2024.
There have been 386,244 new electric vehicles registered in 2025 to date, which represents 28.9% growth year-on-year.
Source: SMMT
-14
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The potential retail margin that can be achieved on electric vehicles bought via Dealer Auction’s open network.
Electric vehicles delivered an average retail margin of £2,765 to retailers in October 2025.
Source: Dealer Auction
Oct 2025 (YoY)
Demand is a measure of consumer response to Autotrader’s used electric vehicle adverts.
Retail demand for used electric vehicles increased by 23.6% year-on-year in October 2025.
Source: Auto Trader
Oct 2025 (YoY)
The level of used electric vehicle stock in the market, according to Autotrader.
Retail supply of used electric vehicles increased by 39.8% year-on-year in October 2025.
Source: Auto Trader
Oct 2025 (YoY)
Retail market health tracks the balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used electric vehicle market is stronger or weaker than previously, according to Autotrader.
Electric vehicle market health declined by 11.6% year-on-year in October 2025.
Source: Auto Trader
-3
Oct 2025 (MoM)
A measure of the speed of sale for dealers’ used electric vehicles advertised on Autotrader.
The average days to sell in October was 24, this is a 3 day decrease from 27 days in September.
Source: Auto Trader
£192
Oct 2025 (YoY)
The average sold price for used electric vehicles at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025 was £13,293, which is £192 higher than September.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
1k
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025 was 31,400 miles.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
-0.6
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services in October 2025 was 42.8 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
2.4%
Oct 2025 (MoM)
The percentage of used electric vehicles sold the first time they appear at auction.
In October 2025, 91% of used electric vehicles sold first time, which is 2.4% higher than September.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
Q3 2025
"Despite October’s modest growth, the new car market remains unsettled amid fragile consumer confidence and policy uncertainty. Electric vehicle adoption is slowing, with year-to-date registrations at just 22.4%, raising concerns about the feasibility of meeting the 33% ZEV mandate by 2026. Without consistent government support and long-term incentives, the risk of undermining recovery and stalling momentum in the transition to zero-emission vehicles is growing.
The used car market, however, shows resilience, with Q3 transactions surpassing 2 million. Yet challenges persist as retailers face margin pressures, limited stock in key age segments, and uncertainty around future EV taxation, which is causing buyer hesitation. While EV growth signals progress, stability through Q4 will depend on clearer government policy and sustained consumer confidence amid economic headwinds."
Philip Nothard - Insight & Strategy Director
13th November 2025
Insights Quarterly Report
Our IQ report keeps you updated on the latest in the automotive
industry with a mix of forecasts, market analysis, and articles on key
trends and developments. Click below to read the latest issue
In October 2025, there were 144,948 new car registrations, which is 0.5% higher than in October 2024.
There have been 1,723,120 new car registrations in 2025 to date, which represents 3.9% growth year-on-year.
Source: SMMT