The UK ZEV mandate is a zero emission vehicle regulation designed to accelerate EV adoption across the market. The ZEV mandate requires vehicle manufacturers selling new cars and vans to ensure an increasing percentage of their annual sales consist of zero emission vehicles.

Unlike earlier policy frameworks that focused on reducing average emissions, it operates as an EV sales mandate, directly targeting the volume of vehicles that produce zero tailpipe emissions. 

By 2030, manufacturers must ensure that 80% of new car sales and 70% of new van sales are zero emission. This staged approach is designed to steadily reduce reliance on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles while giving the industry time to scale supply and charging networks.

After 2030, some hybrid vehicles are expected to remain on sale for a limited period. However, by 2035, all new cars and vans sold are expected to be fully zero emission, completing the phase-out of new ICE vehicle sales.

The ZEV Mandate can be broken down to a few core elements:

1. Yearly targets: Vehicle manufacturers must ensure that a set proportion of their annual sales are zero-emission vehicles. This percentage increases incrementally each year, ultimately reaching 100% by 2035.
2. Certificates: Each zero-emission vehicle sold earns manufacturers certificates. By the end of each year, manufacturers must hold enough certificates to match their overall vehicle sales volumes.
3. Penalties: If manufacturers fall short of their required certificate total, they must either purchase certificates from manufacturers who have exceeded their targets or face a large fine per vehicle.

Confusion often arises when comparing the ZEV mandate with the UK’s planned 2030 ban of new petrol and diesel vehicles. While both policies support the transition to zero emission transport, they operate in different ways.

The ZEV mandate is a sales requirement. It sets annual targets that require manufacturers to increase zero emission vehicle sales over time. By contrast, the petrol and diesel ban requires no new petrol or diesel cars to be sold after 2030. Hybrids will continue to be allowed under the policy until 2035.

The two policies are designed to work alongside each other. The sales mandate encourages gradual market transformation, allowing manufacturers and supply chains to scale production. The future sales ban provides a definitive endpoint.

For those in the industry, understanding this distinction is important. The ZEV mandate influences short to medium-term supply decisions, while the sales ban shapes longer-term product development and investment strategies.

The ZEV mandate is already reshaping the EV market by influencing the types of vehicles that are readily available as well as pricing structures. The increased adoption of electric vehicles has largely been driven by fleet activity to date, and as manufacturers increase zero emission vehicle supply to meet targets, fleet operators are likely to see expanded product choice.

However, whilst fleet electrification is accelerating, adoption timelines will vary between companies depending on vehicle requirements and total cost of ownership modelling.

Leasing companies and funding providers must also factor in ZEV targets and EV adoption rates when structuring finance agreements to mitigate residual value risk.

The ZEV mandate will inevitably influence the development of the used vehicle sector. Increased new zero emission vehicle sales will gradually expand used electric vehicle supply, although this growth typically follows several years behind new vehicle registrations.

Residual value risk remains a key consideration for industry stakeholders. Market confidence in used EVs is closely linked to battery health transparency, vehicle performance data and evolving consumer demand patterns.

Greater access to battery performance insights and lifecycle analytics is expected to play a significant role in stabilising used EV pricing and supporting long-term market confidence.

Whether the UK’s ZEV mandate is a success will depend on whether the majority of the general public make the switch to an electric vehicle. As our recent EV adoption and perceptions report demonstrates, certain misperceptions and lack of driving experience is holding back many drivers from making the switch. 

One of the largest blockers remains the perception that charging infrastructure is inadequate. However, research shows this is a non-issue for the majority of real-world EV drivers. Therefore, efforts should be made to increase awareness of the reality of charging infrastructure in order to improve consumer perceptions and drive adoption.

Whilst charging infrastructure has improved dramatically in recent years, deployment remains uneven across regions, with variations in public and private charging availability adding complexities. Ensuring reliable access to charging infrastructure is essential to supporting net zero transport ambitions and maintaining consistent EV adoption momentum.

Industry collaboration between government, infrastructure providers and vehicle manufacturers will be essential to overcoming these challenges and ensuring the regulation delivers its intended outcomes.

The ZEV mandate is already driving structural change across the UK automotive sector, influencing vehicle development and sales strategies. As the 2030 ZEV mandate milestone approaches, success will depend on good planning.

Manufacturers, fleets and leasing providers that are proactive in their approach to working with drivers to address concerns will ensure they are best equipped to hit the targets and avoid financial penalties.

For further insight into electrification trends and market data, plus useful consumer guides to support EV marketing materials, explore Cox Automotive Europe’s EV Hub and data dashboard.