| Forecast | Upside | Baseline | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | 2.34m | 2.19m | 1.99m |
| % Change | 15.8% | 8.6% | -1.2% |
Every quarter, we combine our proprietary market insights with the latest new car registration data to create three new car market forecast scenarios for the next 12 months.
These include an upside, baseline and downside scenario, each reflecting different macroeconomic, policy and industry conditions that could shape the outlook for the remainder of the year and the total new car registrations.
Source: Cox Automotive (Insight Quarterly)
In Q1 2026, there were 2,016,232 used car sales recorded, which is 0.2% lower than in Q1 2025.
There have been 2,016,232 used car sales this year to date, which represents 0.2% reduction year-on-year so far.
Source: SMMT
| Forecast | Upside | Baseline | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | 8.07m | 7.82m | 7.44m |
| % Change | 3.4% | 0.1% | -4.7% |
Every quarter, we combine our proprietary market insights with the latest used vehicle data to create our used car market forecast: three scenarios which forecast the industry’s performance for the next 12 months.
These include an upside, baseline and downside scenario, each reflecting different macroeconomic, policy and industry conditions that could shape the remainder of the year and the total used car sales.
Source: Cox Automotive (Insight Quarterly)
In May, the UK’s vehicle manufacturing industry produced 49,249 vehicles, which is 3.2% higher than the same period in 2025.
This year to date, the industry has manufactured 306,273 which is an 4.1% reduction on the previous year.
Source: SMMT
The potential retail margin that can be achieved on vehicles bought via Dealer Auction’s open network.
The average retail margin on cars sold in June was £2,600, which is £98 higher than the previous month.
Source: Dealer Auction
Demand is a measure of consumer response to Autotrader’s car adverts.
Retail demand decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in June 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
The level of available stock in the market, according to Autotrader.
Retail supply increased by 7.5% month-on-month in June 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
Retail market health tracks balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used car market is stronger or weaker than previously, according to Autotrader.
Retail market health declined by 8.1% month-on-month in June 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
A measure of speed of sale for franchised dealers used cars advertised on Auto Trader.
The average days to sell in June were 30, which is 1 day higher than in previous month.
Source: Auto Trader
In June, the average sold price of used cars was £7,725, which is £6 higher than the previous month.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average milage of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026 was 68,900.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average age of used car sales at Manheim Auction Services.
The average age of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026 was 103.4 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The percentage of used cars sold the first time they appear at auction.
73% of used cars sold first time at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026, a -0.8% decrease from November.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average change in the cap value for three-year-old and 60,000 mile cars. In June 2026, these decreased by -0.9%.
Source: cap HPI
Manheim’s wholesale market health tracks the balance between supply and demand in the used vehicle market, indicating whether the wholesale car market is stronger or weaker than the year prior. It is measured on a scale of one to 100.
In June 2026, the wholesale car market health was scored at 85.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
This index tracks the supply of wholesale cars since the start of 2025.
Wholesale supply in June was indexed at 122.4, a 22.3 point increase from May.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
This index tracks the demand for wholesale cars since the start of 2025.
Wholesale supply in June 2026 was indexed at 105.1, a 2.8 point decrease from May.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
In June 2026, there were 31,602 new LCV registrations, which is 12.2% higher than in June 2026.
There have been 158,648 new LCV registrations in 2026 to date, which represents 1.7% increase year-on-year.
Source: SMMT
In May 2026, there were 1,929 LCVs manufactured in the UK, which is -7.6% lower than May 2025.
There were 11,506 LCVs manufactured in the UK this year to date, which is -60% lower than in 2025.
Source: SMMT
The average sold price for used LCVs in June 2026 was £8,362.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average mileage of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026 was 76,400 miles.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average age of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average age of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026 was 65 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
Used LCVs sold in June 2026 achieved an average of 95.8% of cap, which is 1.3% higher than the previous month.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The percentage of used cars sold the first time they appear at auction.
77.8% of used cars sold first time at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026, a 0.9% decrease from May.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
There were 63,950 new electric vehicles registered in June 2026, which is 35% higher than June 2025.
There have been 284,579 new electric vehicles registered in 2026 to date, which represents 26.6% growth year-on-year
Source: SMMT
The potential retail margin that can be achieved on electric vehicles bought via Dealer Auction’s open network.
Electric vehicles delivered an average retail margin of £2,763 in retailers in June 2026.
Source: Dealer Auction
Demand is a measure of consumer response to Autotrader’s used electric vehicle adverts.
Retail demand for used electric vehicles decreased by 12.1% month-on-month in June 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
The level of used electric vehicle stock in the market, according to Autotrader.
Retail supply of used electric vehicles increased by 10.4% month-on-month in June 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
Retail market health tracks the balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used electric vehicle market is stronger or weaker than previously, according to Autotrader.
Electric vehicle market health declined by 28.3% month-on-month in June 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
A measure of the speed of sale for dealers’ used electric vehicles advertised on Autotrader.
The average days to sell in June was 25, this is a 1 day increase from May.
Source: Auto Trader
The average sold price for used electric vehicles at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026 was £13,363, which is £537 higher than November.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services in June was 35,500 miles.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026 was 46.9 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The percentage of used electric vehicles sold the first time they appear at auction.
In June 2026, 80.4% of used electric vehicles sold first time, which is 3.1% higher than May.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
"Despite ongoing economic and political uncertainty, the UK new car market has demonstrated remarkable resilience during the first half of the year, with headline growth driven by new market entrants. Competition between these ambitious new brands and established manufacturers is driving greater consumer choice and helping stimulate demand, while growing private buyer confidence suggests the recovery is becoming increasingly broad-based.
"The 35% increase in EV registrations is also encouraging but still falls short of this year's ZEV mandate target, reinforcing the importance of the current mandate review. Overall, the momentum generated in the first six months provides a solid foundation for a market that now looks capable of exceeding 2.1 million registrations in 2026."
Philip Nothard - Insight & Strategy Director
30 July 2026
In June 2026, there were 213,166 new car registrations, which is 11.4% higher than in June 2025.
There have been 1,137,929 new car registrations in 2026 to date, which represents 9.2% growth year-on-year.
Source: SMMT