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Retail and production

Car

New car registrations

85,657
(Aug '23, +24.4% YOY)

1,179,298
('23 YTD, +20.0% YTD)
The number of new cars registered in the UK every month.
SMMT  |  Updated 14/09/23

New car forecast

2.03m (upside)

1.92m (baseline)

1.81m (downside)
The Cox Automotive new car registration forecast - 2023 full year.
Cox Automotive  |  Updated 19/06/23

Used car transactions

1,832,237
(Q2 '23, +4.1% YOY)

3,679,416
('23 YTD, +4.1% YOY)
The number of used cars sold in the UK every quarter.
SMMT  |  Updated 09/08/23

Used car forecast

7.45m (upside)

7.15m (baseline)

7.02m (downside)
Cox Automotive used car transactions forecast - 2023 full year.
Cox Automotive  |  Updated 19/06/23

UK new car production

84,767
(Jun '23, +16.2% YOY)

450,168
('23 YTD, +11.7% YOY)
The number of new cars manufactured in the UK each month.
SMMT  |  Updated 01/08/23

Retail margin

£2,278
(Aug '23, -£1 MOM)


 
The average margin between cars bought on Dealer Auction and retailed on Auto Trader.
Dealer Auction  |  Updated 14/09/23

Retail demand

+9%
(Aug '23, YOY)


 
Demand is a measure of consumer response on Auto Trader used car adverts.
Auto Trader  |  Updated 14/09/23

Used car supply

+1%
(Aug '23, YOY)


 
Supply is the level of used car stock in the market.
Auto Trader  |  Updated 14/09/23

Market health

+8%
(Aug '23, YOY)


 
Market Health is the balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used car market is stronger or weaker than previously.
Auto Trader  |  Updated 14/09/23

Median days before sold

29
(Aug '23, -1 YOY)


 
Market Health is the balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used car market is stronger or weaker than previously.
Auto Trader  |  Updated 14/09/23

Wholesale

Car

Average sold price

£7,431
(-£104 WOW)


 
The average sold price of used cars at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

Wholesale price index

140
(+0 WOW)


 
This index tracks the price performance of 2–4-year-old, 50K-70K, grade 1 to 5 cars sold through Manheim auctions relative to January 2020 prices.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

Average mileage

72k
(+0k WOW)


 
The average mileage of used cars at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

Average age

105.7
(-1.2 WOW)


 
The average age in months of used cars at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

First-time conversions

76%
(-3.7% WOW)


 
The percentage of used cars sold first time at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

CAP value movements

-2.0%
(Aug '23, MOM)


 
The average change at 3-year/60k miles in used cars CAP values each month.
cap hpi  |  Updated 30/08/23

Wholesale supply index

76.6
(+10.3 WOW)


 
This index tracks the supply of wholesale vehicles relative to January 2020 supply levels.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

Wholesale demand index

72.3
(+3.6 WOW)


 
This index tracks the demand for wholesale vehicles relative to whatever the start date was demand levels.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

Commentary

"Amid cautious buying behaviour, Manheim Auction Services has observed favourable responses in its supply and demand wholesale indexes. However, first-time conversion rates are on a slight decline as trade values adjust in anticipation of pre-pandemic seasonal patterns.

"The new car market enters its second year of growth with a significant sign of a 'push' market, as August registrations surge by 24.4% despite it being a low-volume month. All eyes are on September, which holds the key to determining the industry's performance for 2023.

"With OEMs re-entering the fleet market and offering increased incentives to stimulate sales amid production recovery, Auto Trader's used market health indicators show a positive trend compared to the previous year, whilst Dealer Auction retail margin holds firm.

"As OEMs reengage with the fleet market and ramp up incentives to drive sales during the production recovery, Auto Trader's used market health indicators demonstrate a positive trend compared to the previous year."

Updated: 15/09/23

Philip Nothard, Insight & Strategy Director

Retail and production

Commercial vehicle

New LCV registrations

16,305
(Aug '23, +107.9% YOY)

213,219
('23 YTD, +16.5% YTD)
The number of new LCVs registered in the UK each month.
SMMT  |  Updated 14/09/23

Used LCV transactions

256,286
(Q4 '21, -7% YOY)

495,592
(+28% YTD)
The number of used LCVs sold in the UK every quarter.
SMMT  |  Updated 01/01/22

UK LCV production

11,748
(Jun '23, +23.0% YOY)

58,675
('23 YTD, +16.0% YOY)
The number of new LCVs manufactured in the UK each month.
SMMT  |  Updated 01/08/23

New HGV registrations

11,517
(Q1 '23, +17.1% YOY)

11,517
(+17.1% '23 YTD)
The number of new HGVs registered in the UK each quarter.
SMMT  |  Updated 22/02/23

Wholesale

Commercial vehicle

Average sold price

£9,261
(+£654 WOW)


 
The average sold price of used LCVs at Manheim Auction Services
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

Average age

69.0
(-3.5 WOW)


 
The average age in months of used LCVs at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

Average mileage

75k
(-3k WOW)


 
The average mileage of used LCVs at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

CAP average

96.4%
(+2.0% WOW)


 
The average CAP performance of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

First-time conversions

70.9%
(-2.6% WOW)


 
The percentage of used LCVs sold first time at Manheim Auction Services.
Manheim  |  Updated 14/09/23

CAP value movements

-1.2%
(Aug '23, MOM)


 
The average change at 3-year/60k miles in used LCVs CAP values each month.
cap hpi  |  Updated 30/08/23