| Forecast | Upside | Baseline | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | 2.34m | 2.19m | 1.99m |
| % Change | 15.8% | 8.6% | -1.2% |
Every quarter, we combine our proprietary market insights with the latest new car registration data to create three new car market forecast scenarios for the next 12 months.
These include an upside, baseline and downside scenario, each reflecting different macroeconomic, policy and industry conditions that could shape the outlook for the remainder of the year and the total new car registrations.
Source: Cox Automotive (Insight Quarterly)
In Q2 2026, there were 2,009,318 used car sales recorded, which is 0.7% higher than in Q2 2026.
There have been 4,025,550 used car sales this year to date, which represents 0.2% increase year-on-year so far.
Source: SMMT
| Forecast | Upside | Baseline | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | 8.07m | 7.82m | 7.44m |
| % Change | 3.4% | 0.1% | -4.7% |
Every quarter, we combine our proprietary market insights with the latest used vehicle data to create our used car market forecast: three scenarios which forecast the industry’s performance for the next 12 months.
These include an upside, baseline and downside scenario, each reflecting different macroeconomic, policy and industry conditions that could shape the remainder of the year and the total used car sales.
Source: Cox Automotive (Insight Quarterly)
In May, the UK’s vehicle manufacturing industry produced 65,483 vehicles, which is 1.3% lower than the same period in 2025.
This year to date, the industry has manufactured 371,756 which is a 3.6% reduction on the previous year.
Source: SMMT
The potential retail margin that can be achieved on vehicles bought via Dealer Auction’s open network.
The average retail margin on cars sold in June was £2,624, which is £24 higher than the previous month.
Source: Dealer Auction
Demand is a measure of consumer response to Autotrader’s car adverts.
Retail demand decreased by 7.2 % year-on-year in July 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
The level of available stock in the market, according to Autotrader.
Retail supply increased 0.9% year-on-year in July 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
Retail market health tracks balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used car market is stronger or weaker than previously, according to Autotrader.
Retail market health declined by 8% year-on-year in July 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
A measure of speed of sale for franchised dealers used cars advertised on Auto Trader.
The average days to sell in July were 31, which is 1 day higher than the previous month.
Source: Auto Trader
In July, the average sold price of used cars was £7,403, which is £178 higher than the previous month.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average milage of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services in July 2026 was 68,700.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average age of used car sales at Manheim Auction Services.
The average age of used cars sold at Manheim Auction Services in June 2026 was 103 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The percentage of used cars sold the first time they appear at auction.
76% of used cars sold first time at Manheim Auction Services in July 2026, a 3.2% increase from June.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average change in the cap value for three-year-old and 60,000 mile cars. In July 2026, these decreased by -0.7%.
Source: cap HPI
Manheim’s wholesale market health tracks the balance between supply and demand in the used vehicle market, indicating whether the wholesale car market is stronger or weaker than the year prior. It is measured on a scale of one to 100.
In July 2026, the wholesale car market health was scored at 85.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
This index tracks the supply of wholesale cars since the start of 2025.
Wholesale supply in June was indexed at 120.6, a 1.8 point decrease from June.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
This index tracks the demand for wholesale cars since the start of 2025.
Wholesale supply in June 2026 was indexed at 106.3, a 1.2 point increase from June.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
In July 2026, there were 28,578 new LCV registrations, which is 22% higher than in July 2026.
There have been 187,266 new LCV registrations in 2026 to date, which represents 4.3% increase year-on-year.
Source: SMMT
In June 2026, there were 2,717 LCVs manufactured in the UK, which is 1% higher than June 2025.
There were 14,223 LCVs manufactured in the UK this year to date, which is -54.7% lower than in 2025.
Source: SMMT
The average sold price for used LCVs in July 2026 was £9,292.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average mileage of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services in July 2026 was 70,900 miles.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average age of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average age of used LCVs sold at Manheim Auction Services in July 2026 was 63.7 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
Used LCVs sold in July 2026 achieved an average of 98.7% of cap, which is 2.9% higher than the previous month.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The percentage of used cars sold the first time they appear at auction.
80.4% of used LCVs sold first time at Manheim Auction Services in July 2026, a 2.5% increase from June.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
There were 43,106 new electric vehicles registered in July 2026, which is 44.5% higher than July 2025.
There have been 327,663 new electric vehicles registered in 2026 to date, which represents 28.7% growth year-on-year
Source: SMMT
The potential retail margin that can be achieved on electric vehicles bought via Dealer Auction’s open network.
Electric vehicles delivered an average retail margin of £2,819 in retailers in July 2026.
Source: Dealer Auction
Demand is a measure of consumer response to Autotrader’s used electric vehicle adverts.
Retail demand for used electric vehicles increased by 12.4% year-on-year in July 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
The level of used electric vehicle stock in the market, according to Autotrader.
Retail supply of used electric vehicles decreased by 34.7% year-on-year in July 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
Retail market health tracks the balance between supply and demand indicating whether the used electric vehicle market is stronger or weaker than previously, according to Autotrader.
Electric vehicle market health increased by 7.4% year-on-year in July 2026.
Source: Auto Trader
A measure of the speed of sale for dealers’ used electric vehicles advertised on Autotrader.
The average days to sell in July was 25, this is level with June.
Source: Auto Trader
The average sold price for used electric vehicles at Manheim Auction Services in July 2026 was £15,274, which is £1,911 higher than June 2026
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services in June was 34,700 miles.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services.
The average milage of used electric vehicles sold at Manheim Auction Services in July 2026 was 45 months.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
The percentage of used electric vehicles sold the first time they appear at auction.
In July 2026, 88.8% of used electric vehicles sold first time, which is 8.4% higher than June.
Source: Manheim Auction Services
"July highlights both the strength and complexity of the UK's automotive recovery. Demand remains resilient, and the continued growth in EV registrations is a positive step towards decarbonisation.
"However, the market is still falling short of the trajectory required to meet ZEV mandate targets comfortably. Economic stability appears to be supporting consumer confidence, even if higher borrowing costs and cost-of-living pressures remain. As we approach September, the key question is whether current EV momentum reflects sustainable demand or continues to rely heavily on incentives and industry support."
Philip Nothard - Insight & Strategy Director
05 August 2026
In July 2026, there were 156,571 new car registrations, which is 11.7% higher than in July 2025.
There have been 1,294,499 new car registrations in 2026 to date, which represents 9.5% growth year-on-year.
Source: SMMT